Rasmussen Reports updated its balance of power projections for the U.S. Senate, moving three states (Montana, Ohio and Rhode Island) out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Democrat" category. As things stand at the moment, the balance of power is projected to be 49 Republicans and 48 Democrats, according to Rasmussen's polls. Three states are too close to call: Missouri, New Jersey and Tennessee. Democrats will have to win all three of those toss-up races (plus the races in which they are currently favored), to take control of the Senate. Rasmussen's state by state breakdown can be found here.
The only other seat at risk for Republicans belongs to George Allen in Virginia, who is currently favored to win reelection. Given Democratic challenger Jim Webb's disasterous performance on Sunday's Meet the Press, it now seems unlikely that Democrats can win this race. Allen dipped briefly in the polls following the "macaca" incident, but appears to have recovered. The Virginia seat would have been a nice hedge against a potential loss in New Jersey, where Menendez seems headed for stormy waters.